The following text, derived from a summary of ideas presented by Robert McCann at Lazard Frères & Cie. in the spring of 1999, attempts to arouse interest in the existence of a real and significant market for light aircraft, in the obstacles to execution and in a number of ideas or solutions that may facilitate success.
Breathe,
Drink,
Eat,
Reproduce,
Communicate,
Move,
Heal,
Learn,
Amuse…
In the creation of a united Europe (or any other free trade area for that matter), it is necessary to give people the means to move.
They can access anywhere.
Its infrastructure is easier and less expensive to implement.
They cross mountains.
They traverse rivers, lakes and oceans.
Their marginal cost of production is low.
Today, the contest between aeroplanes and trains or cars is analogous to that between mobile and fixed telephones.
Cars were assembled by craftsmen and entrepreneurs, in small workshops, on a small scale and for an essentially rich or enthusiastic clientele (just as aeroplanes are produced today)
The principle innovations of these pioneers were the decision to pay their employees higher wages in order create loyal a working class with the means to purchase the product (the Ford model ‘T’ etc.) and the production in large volumes according to a straight-forward specification which enabled a significant reduction in the cost of production.
In the "Battle of Britain", several hundred flying heroes in single seat aeroplanes such as the Spitfire were able to resist the Teutonic onslaught until US and Commonwealth reinforcements arrived.
Today, in glider races, hundreds of aircraft flock in densely crowded skies in closely weaving formation.
In Australia, farmers and doctors travel in light aircraft. In Europe or America, it is essentially restricted to wealthy businessmen and enthusiasts.
Incredible developments have transformed our knowledge in areas such as the science of materials (use of composites and aluminium – eg. Audi A8, Renault Spyder) or in telecommunications and control systems (satellites – Galileo ; cellular – GSM, 3G ; video ; IT ; TCP/IP), ...
and include customs controls, linguistic, economic, political and social constraints…
We begin the new millennium with saturated roads, automotive technology that evolves slowly (we are still building VW Beetles !), and light aircraft that are sold based on 40 year old technology.
The major transformation in the transportation market in the 21st century will be in our widespread exploitation of the third dimension.
Difficulty in controlling movements of people or customs traffic.
Confrontation of peoples divided by culture or language may lead to social reaction and psychological confusion.
Potential market failure due :
- to national and international competition between large corporations ;
- to the need to cooperate in terms of technical standards and borderless systems ;
- to the substantial investments required ;
- to the need for a consequent market to justify an economic return, yet implicitly in contradiction with concerns for the environment or for limiting movements of people.
The consequences of an accident (collision / falling objets / …) or of a technical malfunction may be catastrophic (cf. New York 11 September 2001, Milan April 2002). Zero risk or even zero defects does not exist !
The noise of an aeroplane flying at high altitude is practically imperceptible at ground level, but may be very irritating during takeoff and landing. However, advances in propulsion system design (eg. dynamic engine control systems or turbofan propulsion) and in general aerodynamics may sufficiently attenuate these nuisances.
Over intermediary distances, some aeroplanes pollute less than a car and over long distances, even less than the train !
To illustrate, in favourable environmental conditions, a glider may fly all day long.
Star Wars and small scale nuclear warfare limited to Europe (Ronald Reagan) ?
Missile launches between the Lebanon and Israel ?
Conflicts in Africa ?
Pilot-less surveillance aircraft (eg. Predator) used in the war in Afghanistan ?
The global missile defence shield (George W. Bush) ?
The European satellite constellation Galileo – competitor to the American GPS (Global Positioning System) – but intended for civil transportation purposes ?
Public sources of information reveal that national military defence budgets have remained at relatively constant levels since the end of the cold war and that R&D budgets and military technology investments are increasing in the developed countries, accompanied by full order books at military aircraft and missile manufacturers !
Are we moving towards a global conflict ? Is the world going mad ? Or rather, if the Pentagon does not actually intend to obliterate the entire planet, is it not therefore the case that these investments represent a disguised manner of subsidising investment in the new technologies necessary for the next generation of air traffic control systems enabling a paradigm shift in terms of density and controllability of air traffic ?
Observation |
Technology |
Potential aeronautical application |
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Automotive technologies |
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A Formula 1 car crashes against a wall at 300km/h and the driver walks away unharmed |
Safety cages / modular construction / advanced materials |
Improved passenger safety |
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Airbags have reduced the fatality of car accidents |
Pyrotechnics |
Parachutes triggered by explosives (eg. Microlights), ejectable seats (eg. Fighter planes), … |
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Remote radio control of engine performance in Formula 1 racing enable performance optimisation with minimal pollution |
Onboard remote control electronic control systems |
Performance optimisation, remote warning of engine malfunction, radio controlled flight, … |
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Point to point navigation and traffic control systems |
CD-ROM mapping / GPS navigation (Galileo in Europe) |
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Information Technology |
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Communication networks, developed for military applications, able to deliver large packets of information to their destination rapidly and despite failure at one point in the network |
Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) |
Visual real time communication of key data (eg. Itinerary, technical problems, media (film / music) |
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Real time discreet software control systems |
Networks, parallel processing |
Navigation / Identification / Traffic channelling and management… |
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Video games and simulators |
Visualisation systems (flat screen, LCD, head-up display, projection to screen, windscreen or visor) |
Ergonomics and user-friendliness, clarity of presented information |
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Avionic and missile technologies |
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Electronic control of motor and directional functions of the aeroplane, currently used in sophisticated aircraft (eg. Airbus, Rafale, Eurofighter…) and drones (eg. Predator) |
Fly-By-Wire, servo-control, … |
Auto pilot systems, remote control and automatic landing |
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Radio or satellite controlled missiles were used in the Kosovo and Gulf wars |
Miniaturisation, on-board technology, GPS, telecommunications, laser guiding… |
Ability to take control at a distance by remote control in case of pilot sickness or non-cooperation. Pilotless aeroplanes. |
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Propulsion systems |
Jet, ramjet, turbofan. |
Lightweight, more powerful or less noisy aircraft engines |
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Production technologies |
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Improvements in speed and accuracy of robots |
"Direct drive" robots |
Mig/Tig welding onto aluminium and alloys and precision assembly |
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"Zero defects" |
Total quality systems, six-sigma quality |
Better control of the risks of technical failure |
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Ability to pass directly from component design to assembly |
Computer Aided Design (CAD) and Manufacture (CAM), Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) |
Reduction of cycle times from design to manufacture to delivery. Improved management of product documentation and logistical flows |
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Fuel technology |
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The space shuttle is propelled by liquid hydrogen fuel which burns to produce water vapour. Cars currently use liquid petroleum gas (or even natural gas) which pollutes less than petrol. Even alcohol which may be manufactured from agricultural products such as beet may be a viable cleaner fuel |
Hydrogen is manufactured by electrolysing water. The electricity required may be generated by overnight excess nuclear capacity or by renewable sources (eg. solar cells in the Saharan desert or wind farms in the North Sea). Natural gas is currently available in abundant quantities in underground seals |
Internal combustion engines, jet engines, or even ram jets may be adapted to use one of these fuels |
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end